Is the End of MINI’s Combustion Engines in Sight?
Although electric vehicles are now fully part of the automotive landscape, hydrogen-powered cars still have a long way to go before becoming mainstream. In a recent post, our friends at [Autocar](http://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/bmw-confirms-hydrogen-car-development) quote BMW Group’s sales and marketing boss Ian Roberston on the matter. His opinions and subsequently the opinions and BMW and MINI may surprise you.
BMW had been a leader in Hydrogen for years when it pulled the plug in the program over six years ago. However, as part of it’s recent tie-up with Toyota, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are back on the table with new test cars currently in development. Aside from the engineering challenges that represents such an undertaking, finding a cost-effective way to supply hydrogen is another obstacle to overcome before these cars can reach the marketplace.
Interestingly enough, the rapid advances in battery technology (i.e. charging time, range) are also “not helping” the development of hydrogen-powered BMWs. As more and more EVs populate roads across the globe, their sales fuel (no pun intended) R&D budgets thus accelerating the rate of learning to develop better batteries.
Robertson predicts that a future where electricity is the main focus for the Group, as opposed to combustion engines, is just 10 years away. Basically BMW and MINI are perhaps just a decade away from ceasing development of the internal combustion engine. That doesn’t mean they’ll stop selling them. It just means that we won’t see entirely new engine families or even large iterations of existing ones ever again.
We definitely live in a very interesting time and while these technological prowess are fascinating, I’m not really looking forward to a time when combustion engines become an endangered species. What do you think?
<p>The sooner combustion engines go away the better! I look forward to a time with clean, quite vehicles everywhere with minimal maintance (no more oil changes!).</p>
<p>We will have to see how long inexpensive gasoline lasts….. With oil prices tumbling the negative impact on R&D budgets for alternative fuels is yet to be seen. I would hope that the auto industry would continue at the rate they have (or better), but I don’t have faith that that will be the case. With prices near $4 there was more incentive, at back down to $2 we will have to see. I have to surmise that this is what the oil producing nations of the world wanted to happen, since they can manipulate the prices to meet what they think will be the desired results.</p>
<p>Unlike Gabe I am not dreading the demise of the internal combustion engine. If I don’t have to worry about range, I will be perfectly happy with electric motors so long as there is appropriate levels of performance to go with them. I won’t terribly miss the noise we get from a car today (although I know many will). For me getting shoved back into the seat and cornering at speed are the fun, not the sound.</p>
<p>There’s also the cultural shift that’s going on. The success of companies like Tesla has only extended the social signaling of “I’m green” and continues to feed a segment of mainstream culture that wants out of oil no matter how cheap it gets. The population of meat heads who want to drive SUVs on cheap gas is a stable or shrinking number. People looking for alternatives, on the other hand, is an ever growing cultural movement.</p>
<p>I agree with Nathaniel, I don’t think it is about the cheapest method of transportation. Model S is FOR SURE not the cheapest way to get around. These buyers want to drive electric for varying reasons. This is less of a premium when looking at the Leaf or i3, but it is still choosing a vehicle that uses alternative “fuel” and paying a premium for that vehicle to not have to pump gas.</p>
<p>I personally think dependence on oil is a bad idea no matter the cost. It is a much worse idea when it isn’t our oil…</p>
<p>You haven’t been shopping lateley… Our 500e has a three year lease payment of ~$250 a month. It was $1600 down. That included the first months lease payment. California sent us a check for $2500… That’s 10 months of lease payment. We switched to time of use electric metering available to electric car owners, and saved another month or two of lease payments a year. (and that’s for our normal electricity usage) So the first year was basically free, and our net cost to own the car is less than $150 a month… That’s dirt cheap for a new car that we just take in when it’s got a problem.</p>
<p>Our cost per mile varies from 4 cents to 14 cents, depending on how and when we charge. We’re saving about $75-$100 a month on decreased fuel costs.</p>
<p>But one will spend more on tires as the low speed torque is great! The notion that there is a large premium to go electric isn’t really true anymore, especially at the lower end of the cost spectrum (the so called “compliance cars”). If you price a Model S against an M5, there isn’t much of a delta either.</p>
<p>What is the base of the 500e vs the 500?</p>
<p>Just wondering. We don’t have it here in Ohio so I don’t know…</p>
<p>As a previous employee of TESLA and part of a family that owns 4 of them, I am extremely excited for the day that there are more (performance minded) EVs available for purchase. I am confident that when my Countryman lease is up in another 2.3 years I will be purchasing/leasing an EV. I would prefer that EV be a TESLA, but I am not a blind shopper. I will look at all vehicles averrable for sale in my given segment and price range.</p>
<p>Those of you who believe that you will be forgoing something when your vehicle is not burning dinosaur juice anymore need to get behind the wheel is a TESLA, I am not saying that everyone should buy one, but even just visiting a TESLA store and sitting in a static Model S will give you an idea of how little you are actually sacrificing. If you are able to drive one, I promise you will not miss “that sound of the engine” or “downshifting before a corner”. I was in your shoes once, and a performance minded EV changed my mind. Give it a chance… They are worth a look and will offer an economical benefit when they reach the 30-40k mark… Heres hoping that happens in 2.3 years!</p>
<p>Well, you will be forgoing <em>something</em>…hell, you’re forgoing something every time you get on a train that’s not powered by a steam engine! (Riding a nostalgia line in the Scottish Highlands was quite an experience.) It’s all about whether you gain more than you lose; I agree that it’ll be a net gain once the infrastructure is there and the technology is mature.</p>
<p>(By the way, Tesla capitalizes Tesla as “Tesla,” not “TESLA.”)</p>
<p>Not true, please visit the site <a href="http://www.teslamotors.com" rel="nofollow ugc">http://www.teslamotors.com</a> and you will see TESLA all over it specifically in logos and on the car. While both are used in comon text, if you talk to the designer of the Model S and company logos he will tell you that the company is technically all caps with the E only written with the 3 horizontals and no verticle. Since that is not a key on the qwerty keyboard yet… TESLA will have to do for now.</p>
<p>It is without question a net gain. I challenge anyone who isn’t convinced to sit in/drive one.</p>
<p>The sooner the better. Green, sure, but better performance, less maintenance. Really folks, don’t be nostalgic about this. I know, I know, sounds, wrenching, blah blah blah. The tech in cars has turned over slowly, but just thing floppy disks, hard drives – do you really want to stick with that?</p>
<p>I don’t think it’s useful to think of the end of the ICE. It’s just as better/cheaper alternative drivetrains are available, then the ICE will be limited to a smaller and smaller share of the market. Good thing or bad thing? I don’t know… But I know it’s coming, and it’s coming fast.</p>
<p>What will be interesting is how groups like M/// or AMG deal with this. Sure you can turbocharge a 5 liter V8, put on direct injection, and get 600+ of streetable horsepower… But what’s next? Hybrids give the boost of the electric on top of whatever flavor of ICE they use, and that’s a nice way to keep some performance on top of a smaller ICE.</p>
<p>The bigger issue for the sports/performance car market is that less and less people care about it at all! All those silver haired men (and women) who buy the expensive sports and performance cars fell in love with the idea of sports cars when they were young. My kids care little about what new car is out, but they do care about what version of phone has just been released. In 30 years, how many performance car buyers will there be?</p>
<p>You’ve raised a very good point. In Europe, the ownership of cars by the 18-25 year olds has fallen dramatically in recent years, the main reason being that whereas in my youth a car was a vitally important means to sociability, today the young communicate more through social media technology.</p>
<p>What makes these short trip EVs so green? Don’t they have to be plugged into an electric source? If that’s the case, then either coal or oil powers the generators that provide power to these electric stations. Nuclear energy in some cases. Still, oil and coal aren’t clean, as the environmentalist say.</p>
<p>Oh well, I’m from another generation, plus being a Hotrod guy, so I appreciate of a well tuned gasoline powered ride. So to the ne’er generations here, please excuse me.</p>
<p>It’s about efficiency. Even from coal, electric vehicles are operating at a much higher rate of efficiency. So you’re traveling further on a given amount of CO2 produced, whether upstream (in a power plant) or in the vehicle itself (such as a Volt or Karma).</p>
<p>Common misconception. Only 38% of US electricity is from coal, and that % is dropping, being replaced by natural gas, wind, solar, hydro, nuclear, and other sources. Oil generates electricity only in Hawaii and a bit in Alaska.
The beauty of EV’s is that as you clean up the electric grid, it
automatically cleans up the EV.</p>