Small Cars With Internal Combustion Engines Are Facing Extinction
In what can be classified as an ironic development, new European environmental regulations are set to kill small cars as we know them. In the coming years small cars with internal combustion engines (ICE) will face extinction specifically due to more stringent WLTP regulations that will demand electrification to meet CO2 requirements. Given that profit margins are already slim on small cars, these added costs would likely drive them from the market altogether.
Autocar spoke with VW sales and marketing boss Jürgen Stackmann and he admitted that there’s simply no business case for a car like the VW UP with an ICE powertrain once these regulations go into effect.
For comparison the VW UP is 28 cm/11 inches shorter than the MINI and is considered a “city car” in Europe where MINI is not. Still the MINI will be affected by these same economics albeit not quite as dramatically. Because of its size and BMW’s long history in electric cars it’s been able to electrify the current F56 with just two years of development time. If sold profitably, that could support ICE cars for years to come. But even still the writing is on the wall. BMW has said on the record that it plans to turn the MINI brand into an electric one. The timing of that is not immediate and there will be many steps that will get us there (the first being the MINI Cooper SE later this year). But clearly that’s where things are headed.
In the meantime automakers are about be cased with tough decisions around how to keep small ICE powered cars on the market not just in the US but Europe as well. The result could be the reduction and ultimate extinction of small, affordable cars.
<p>Hummm…interesting and unfortunate, yet I totally understand why. It would be sad to see small small inexpensive cars fade away, but as long as MINI is still around when it happens, I’m good!</p>
<p>Proofreading is a powerful tool that facilitates understanding.</p>
<p>Go ahead.</p>
<p>If you send me articles pre-publication, I will be pleased to proofread. There is not much point, post-publication.</p>
<p>” it’s been able to <b>electricity</b> the current F56 ”
“automakers are about be <b>cased</b> with tough decisions”
“The timing of that is not immediate and there will be many steps that will get us there <b>(</b>the first being the MINI Cooper SE later this year. But clearly that’s where things are headed.” – missing closing parenthesis.</p>
<p>Love the articles and the MF team puts a ton of effort into keeping all of us updated but there could be a bit more proofreading done at times. I know it’s hard for anyone to proofread what they have written. The mind sees what it wants to see. I proofread my work emails and, inevitably, there are still gotchas that have slipped through.</p>
<p>I see your point about the irony.</p>
<p>Why not phase out larger ICE vehicles first? Like Sedans and SUVs.</p>
<p>I don’t get it. :|</p>
<p>Just read the article… it is on small cars that depollution is too expensive proportionnally</p>
<p>Am not confused why BMW is taking this action. Am confused why the EU regulations are targeting small ICE cars and not the bigger ICE vehicles that actually emit more. The article is silent on that.</p>
<p>Oh no, EU regulations do not <i>only </i>target small cars ICE ;)</p>
<p>Ah, gotcha. Thanks.</p>
<p>I read the article twice… it’s not at all clear from this WHY it’s hitting smaller ICE cars, but one could deduce that there is some kind of pollution tax that will erase the already-small profit on compact ICE cars, whereas bigger SUV’s, with bigger profit margins, will be able to soak up that tax.</p>
<p>IMO any such tax should be scaled to emissions of individual vehicles to avoid this scenario. It is really dumb to have policies that support the unnecessary driving of full-sized $50,000 gasoline-powered SUV’s, while punishing the manufacture of more efficient gasoline-powered small cars. I mean, that is as dumb as you can get.</p>
<p>Here in the States the biggest environmental problem with autos is that everybody wants a huge SUV to cart around 1-2 people and a six-pack of coke. That’s like 90% of the cars on the road. (Also they don’t know how to drive or, especially, park their huge cars… and they don’t care to learn.)</p>
<p>The article says it – co2 Regis are becoming so stringent that some type of electrification will be required making these cars too expensive to sell.</p>
<p>A sad reality indeed, and I agree that overzealous EU regulations are part of the blame.</p>
<p>It is ironic too.</p>
<p>Such is the way of the world though, and it goes on and on.</p>
<p>In the very near future it will only be grumpy curmudgeons (like me) who keep and maintain their ICE vehicles, and even may become societal pariahs amongst the genteel educated folk who may view such people which cling to their archaic technology as over-polluting heathens and dammit some law should be passed to ban gasoline!</p>
<p>What a drag it all is, like strictly four corners.</p>
<p>It will be the insurance industry (with governmental nudging) that forces us out of ICE vehicles and into not only electrics but autonomous vehicles. The cost of insuring vehicles driven by irrational and imprecise humans will be beyond the ability of those without trust funds to finance them. It’s coming and I for one will be dragged kicking and screaming into the new world order! You can take my R56 when you pry my cold dead hands off my JCW Alcantara steering wheel! ;^)</p>
<p>According to latest sources, we should expect the next generation MINI to go big on Crossovers, and the clock is now ticking on the 5-door Hatch, the Cabriolet and the slow selling Clubman. Their departure will make room for the next Countryman to have two sister models. All three will be built on the new FAAR front-drive/4-wheel drive platform, and be powered by the 2.0-litre four, in addition to various stages of electrification.</p>
<ol>
<li>MINI Countryman – direct replacement for current model.</li>
<li>MINI Sportsman – a dramatically dynamic and stylish 5-door Coupe.</li>
<li>MINI Bushman – described as a “rough tough” SUV.</li>
</ol>
<p>The 3-door Hatch will, subject to the joint venture with GWM, be replaced by the proposed all-electric MINI Metro.</p>
<p>Am excited about the Bushman. Am not particularly curious about the Sportsman – just feels like too big a departure from the original brand concept.</p>
<p>Am both surprised and not surprised that BMW is still clinging to the patriarchal nomenclature of the vehicle names.</p>
For the ‘Sportsman’ think MINI’s take on the X2.
<p>Mr. Dawson, how much time is on that ticking clock??? The future of MINI you have outlined does not have alot of appeal to me and I may want to get in and grab a hardtop or 5 door before they are phased out? I know it is a little fuzzy but what is your estimate or forecast?</p>
<p>We know that the replacement date for F56 has been pushed back a couple of years to 2023, so I suspect that we have at least four to five years before the entire current range will have been replaced.</p>
<p>By the way please call me Nick :)</p>
<p>Thank you for the rapid response.
OK good to know. For me the timing may be ideal. My R series will be 9 years old, and approx. 120k miles in 2022 Current thought is to get a 5 dr. cooper S with the JCW tuning option, and enjoy “smaller” MINI motoring before its gone.</p>
<p>Current plans are to co-develop a new MINI hatch for release in late 2022 based on my sources. On paper this could be a more tailored platform for the needs of MINI – even more so than the current one. However it won’t be shared with BMW products and won’t have that same pedigree.</p>
<p>Thanx Gabe. Is the forecast to be ICE and electric option on the 2022 model, or electric only as Nick indicated above. Or is the dedicated electric platform a specific development effort?</p>
BMW has been very consistent with their messaging around a strategy to basically do it all in the mid-term. That means the FAAR and other platforms will be able to accept electric, hybrid and ICE powertrains. The reason is that the global markets are inconsistent and unstable in their demands all-electric cars. There are some regions/countries (Scandinavia and China for instance) that are aggressively supporting electric cars through legislation. There are others (the US and Russia) that are moving away from that support. Then there’s the constantly fluctuating gas prices which are expected to remain quite low for North America in the near future that are impacting the thinking as well. All this is pushing BMW’s strategy of wait and see.
<p>BMW has been very consistent with their messaging around a strategy to basically do it all in the mid-term. That means the FAAR and other platforms will be able to accept electric, hybrid and ICE powertrains. The reason is that the global markets are inconsistent and unstable in their demands all-electric cars. There are some regions/countries (Scandinavia and China for instance) that are aggressively supporting electric cars through legislation. There are others (the US and Russia) that are moving away from that support. Then there’s the constantly fluctuating gas prices which are expected to remain quite low for North America in the near future that are impacting the thinking as well. All this is pushing BMW’s strategy of wait and see.</p>
<p>Unlike the US, small cars sell in large numbers in the EU. VW basically killed off any trust in EU car makers (everyone was gaming the test just not as brazen as VW). So the EU was left with a testing regime that was a joke (unlike the EPA) and car makers with an engine investment in critical life support. We had the bizarre situation of small cars (mostly driving in cities at low speeds) with real world high emissions from small diesel engines – which only sold well because of lies from the car makers on both fuel efficiency (and thus emissions C02 and NOX). So hence the WLTP, Now everyone has to find solutions fast or sell cars with poor mpg stats and poor overall emissions (ie sales heading one way-down).
Small cars will still sell (we don’t have the acres of road space in cities like the US) but the era of small diesel is near over (at least in small cars). We now have small 3cyl turbo petrol engines trying to fill the gap , to offer good mpg + low emissions. But as Ford has shown, the ecoboost tech can replace bigger capacity engines in power but the fuel efficiency/emission gain is not dramatic (unless you presume gas will remain cheaper than milk forever).</p>
<p>Meantime EU car makers are suddenly without a competitive hybrid engine range (like Toyota-Lexus-GM) or EV (like Nissan-Kia-GM-Tesla). The i3 needs a radical redesign and only Renault sells a small EV car – the ZOE (and no sign of expanding the EV range soon) and VWs ID range is still a gamble. Every EU car makers is now scrambling to push their slow EV development from testing to hyperspace fast track (Mini-Citroen-Peugeot-Fiat-Volvo-Ford. Bigger (and way more profitable) cars will see as big an impact. Meanwhile the cities air gets more toxic and climate change means radical changes are coming sooner than any powertrain investment</p>